How can the net worth of any app-based services like Swiggy, Zomato, Ola, Uber, or Byju’s be assessed fairly and realistically on a sound economic basis?
Answer: https://qr.ae/pGm6FY
My Comments:
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To you, Zomato may not be Google / Amazon / Facebook / Tesla. But enough investors may think Zomato is Google et al (or have some other MNPI about Zomato that you don’t). At the same time, a lot of VCs passed on Zomato, so they probably don’t think Zomato is Google et al (or have the same MNPI as the first cohort of investors do). You could be right, they could be wrong, or vice versa, at this point, it’s just a bet on the future, no one can say who is right or who is wrong before the fact.
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Many savvy restaurants have a different menu for food delivery channel where prices are hiked up by ~20% – so as to recoup the commissions they pay to food delivery companies like Zomato.) (This is apparently perfectly kosher.) Effectively, many diners pay not ?100 but even ?150–200 or more per dish that they order from Zomato. (More or less same with Swiggy).
In addition, I can add delivery agent unrest and restaurant quarrels to your list of travails faced by Zomato.
But, in the larger scheme of things, these are intrinsics. Unless they cause a total meltdown, they don’t play such a big role in Zomato’s valuation – just as profit / loss, one of the most fundamental intrinsic of a business, didn’t at the time of Zomato’s IPO.
For the last 10 years or so, valuation of tech startups has been driven by Hype, PZF, FOMO, Marketing Gimmick, Liquidity and other Extrinsics. Unless there’s a big drop in liquidity, it’s just as easy to create a bullish outlook for Zomato and rationalize it on the basis of some other Intrinsics e.g. huge headroom to grow, higher propensity of growing Gen Y, Z and Alpha demographics to pay for convenience compared to their parents’ generations, etc. And, if there’s a big drop in liquidity, I can bet that the blue chip darlings of the stock market will suffer an equally bad – if not worse – fall in their valuations as Zomato.
Proof that BAAP aka FOMO has been the dominant style of investing in the last 10 years – even in India ~ @ETPrime_com pic.twitter.com/rELfptlREg
— Ketharaman Swaminathan (@s_ketharaman) November 12, 2021
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What's wrong even if it's "just a PR Stunt"?
In Capitalism, Manufacturing Product Labor Effort etc are tablestakes. Wealth is created only via PR Stunt, Marketing Gimmick, FOMO, Hype, etc.
— Ketharaman Swaminathan (@s_ketharaman) September 18, 2021
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That's so 20th century.
Over 80% of tech IPOs in USA in 2019 were of loss making companies. Still enough people made money on them.
Not many people understand Bitcoin but it's best performing asset in history.
Extrinsics like hype & liquidity outweigh intrinsics in 21st century.— Ketharaman Swaminathan (@s_ketharaman) November 10, 2021
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+1. "Capex" "Profit" etc. are so 20th century. For the last ~10 years, some of the highest returns have come from asset classes that have low-no intrinsic values per traditional valuation models. Since returns are tangible greenbacks, limitation is in valuation models.
— Ketharaman Swaminathan (@s_ketharaman) February 7, 2021
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3/5 I'm leaning towards the latter because I've seen several myths about the Indian consumer being busted in the last 10-20 years: (1) Need to touch and fell, ecommerce won't work – but Amazon Flipkart (2) Will never buy clothes online – but Myntra (3) Won't pay for delivery -…
— GTM360 (@GTM360) October 4, 2021